A632.1.4.RB_ashbrookrichard


A632.1.4.RB - Multistage Decision-Making                                                October 15, 2018


Hoch, Chapter 3 discusses the power of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. The text discusses the way that researchers solve multistage problems through the application of formulas (dynamic programming models) that provide the most significant chances of success. Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use in relation to the decision making process recommendations outlined in the article. How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of today's decision? Additionally, would the conclusions reached on pages 57ff. of the text improve your decision-making? How and why?



Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use in relation to the decision making process recommendations outlined in the article.

In my company we are very bid on using the decision tree process and group barnstorming process works very well for an aviation company. The group barnstorming lets the group takes advantage of all of the experience that we have in our group. I have notice that people in some of groups have many years of experience and knowledge but our not willing to share. If a member of the group starts a thought process the more experience members would always finish the original thought. To get a visual on what the group thought process looks like, the decision tree works very well.

What is a decision tree?


A decision tree is a map of the possible outcomes of a series of related choices. It allows an individual or organization to weigh possible actions against one another based on their costs, probabilities, and benefits. They can be used either to drive informal discussion or to map out an algorithm that predicts the best choice mathematically.

Brainstorming combines a relaxed, informal approach to problem solving with lateral thinking. It encourages people to come up with thoughts and ideas that can, at first, seem a bit crazy. Some of these ideas can be crafted into original, creative solutions to a problem, while others can spark even more ideas. This helps to get people unstuck by "jolting" them out of their normal ways of thinking.

Another advantage of group brainstorming is that it helps everyone feel that they've contributed to the solution, and it reminds people that others have creative ideas to offer. It's also fun, so it can be great for team building, (mindtools.com).



How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of today's decision?

According to Hoch, (2004), the good news about multistage decision making is that in many cases everyday reasoning provides nearly optimal decisions. The bad news is that when later stages depend on what is learned in earlier stages, everyday reasoning fails because we seldom consider those later stages in the beginning. Keep in mind that optimal decision are often obvious and that life experiences along with human intuition can be quite powerful but works best when it is balanced with judicious use of models.



Additionally, would the conclusions reached on pages 57ff. of the text improve your decision-making? How and why?

By all means it would differently improve my decision-making. The process that Hoch talks about the human intuition can be quiet powerful and that the myopic person will see the big picture much easier. This also would provide a check on the human tendency to see patterns that are not there.

Multiple-stage decisions refer to decision tasks that consist of a series of interdependent stages leading towards a final resolution, ((cf. Gass 1985, Chapter 23).



It should be noted that decisions can be made on the basis of numerous rather than several criteria. The criteria must describe the problem that needs to be solved. To help decision-makers solve complicated problems effectively, that authors suggest the multiple-criteria decision-making system that considers a large number of efficiency criteria. The multi-stage decision-making system consists of a number of stages. The main stages of such system are as follow



-Initiation;

-Identification;

-Appraisal;

-Assessment;

-Decision-making  



References

Gass, S. (1985), Decision Making, Models and Algorithms: A First Course .New

York: John Wiley and Sons.



https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82497100.pdf

https://www.mindtools.com/brainstm.html

Levine, S. (2009). Getting to resolution: Turning conflict into collaboration. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
 Hoch, S. J. (2004). Wharton on Making Decisions. John Wiley & Sons.

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